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Detroit Lions top ESPN worst-to-first rankings
Detroit Lions top ESPN worst-to-first rankings
ESPN is a believer in the Detroit Lions heading into 2026.
Searching for the NFL's most likely turnarounds, ESPN shared its worst-to-first rankings. ESPN used its Football Power Index to put its rankings together.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementOf last season's eight fourth-place finishers, ESPN's FPI ranks the Lions as the most likely to go from worst-to-first.
If the Lions can accomplish the feat, it would mark back-to-back seasons that the NFC North champion has gone worst-to-first. The Chicago Bears were just 5-12 in 2024 before improving to 11-6 last season en route to the NFC North division crown.
ESPN's FPI gives the Lions a 38.2% chance to win the NFC North (tops in the division) and a 68.4% chance to make the playoffs (sixth in the NFL).
Here's what ESPN wrote about the Lions' worst-to-first chances.
The Lions have by far the best odds to go from worst to first for three main reasons: schedule, injuries and they weren't really that bad last season. Of course, this is exactly what I wrote about the 49ers a year ago, so there certainly are no guarantees.
We'll start with the quality of the team. The Lions finished last season ranked third in both FPI and DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average). Yes, there are questions about the interior offensive line, but this is a team that has ranked among the league's top eight offenses for four straight seasons. The defense also has excellent talent, and DVOA ranked the Lions in the top 10 for all three phases of the game in both 2024 and 2025.
Don't forget that Detroit had a winning record last season and was actually one win away from finishing second in the NFC North. And one of these years, the Lions might make it through a season without suffering the most defensive injuries of any team in the league. Detroit ranked dead last in adjusted games lost on defense last season, and only the Cardinals had more injuries overall.
The Lions' schedule ranks 27th in the league by the average projected DVOA of their opponents; the other three teams in the NFC North all have schedules ranked 18th or harder. Getting Arizona on their schedule instead of the other three NFC West teams is huge, but the Lions also play the Giants and Titans instead of the tougher teams their division rivals must face. - Aaron Schatz, ESPN
While nothing is guaranteed, it's great to see that ESPN's metrics like the Lions a lot headed into 2026.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe other most-likely worst-to-first squads in order are the New Orleans Saints, New York Giants and Tennessee Titans.
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This article originally appeared on Lions Wire: Detroit Lions top ESPN worst-to-first rankings