The problem is not necessarily that India is receiving more rain. It is the way the rain is arriving: longer dry spells are followed by short bursts of intense rainfall that can overwhelm rivers, drainage systems and hillsides.

El Nino has added to this year's variability but scientists say the longer-term changes are being driven by a changing climate.

Have the monsoons entered a new era?

Akshay Deoras, a senior research scientist with the UK's National Centre for Atmospheric Science and the University of Reading, cautions against describing the Indian monsoon as having entered "a fundamentally different regime."

"Active and break spells have always been part of the monsoon. What appears to be changing is their intensity," Deoras told DW.

He pointed out a warmer atmosphere can hold more moisture, making active spells, or periods of intense rainfall, more intense.

Tidal flooding in Kerala: A crisis no one saw coming

To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video

Madhavan Nair Rajeevan, a climate scientist and former secretary in the Ministry of Earth Sciences, says the change is visible in the behaviour of the monsoon itself.

Average seasonal rainfall, he said, has not shown a systematic long-term change and the monsoon remains a robust natural phenomenon. But the timing, intensity and distribution of rainfall are all noticeably different.

"The characteristics of the Indian monsoon have changed fundamentally," Rajeevan told DW. "We are witnessing an increase in short-duration rainfall extremes, longer dry spells, and changes in the frequency, intensity and distribution of monsoon weather systems."

He believes the rise in extreme rainfall is more than natural variability.

"It represents a structural shift in the monsoon system," he said.

Villages and cities both at risk

India's farmers depend heavily on the timing of rainfall. Long dry spells can disrupt sowing and reduce soil moisture and intense rain can wash away fields and damage crops.

India's cities are also struggling due to rapid construction, as new roads and buildings leave less land to absorb water, thus interfering with natural drainage.

Moreover, after weeks of dry weather, hard, dry soil absorbs less water. When heavy rain finally arrives, more of it floods the rivers and drains instead of replenishing groundwater.

India not stepping up to extreme weather hazard

"The greatest risks increasingly come from short periods of very intense rainfall," Deoras told DW, warning that India's infrastructure is increasingly out of step with this changing threat.

Deoras says drainage systems and flood management are still too often designed around historical seasonal rainfall averages rather than the short, high-impact events that cause the greatest disruption.

He noted that forecasting has improved, but knowing that extreme rain is coming is only useful if authorities act on the warning.

Closing the flood warning gap

Warnings, he said, need to translate into "timely, impact-based decisions" such as changing school schedules, restricting travel or closing off vulnerable areas before heavy rain arrives.

Ritwick Dutta, an environmental lawyer and managing trustee of the Legal Initiative for Forest and Environment, says the problem goes beyond extreme weather itself.

"It is now scientifically accepted that climate change leads to erratic rainfall patterns. High rainfall over a few days followed by long dry periods during the monsoon," Dutta told DW.

"These trends have been compounded by the fact that the decision-making process in India fails to consider climate change while planning construction projects."

Dutta points to the western city of Pune, where a study by the state government and the Energy and Resources Institute projects a 37% increase in rainfall by 2030. Still, Dutta says this projection has not been adequately incorporated into the city's planning, including its riverfront development.

"Dams, embankments and roads are all likely to suffer major damage due to climate change, and yet we proceed as though climate change is a matter to be discussed only in conferences and workshops," Dutta said.

"We are, in effect, 'weaponizing the environment'," Dutta said.

India-Pakistan floods and the impact of climate change

Dutta says India's environmental clearance system does not require climate change to be systematically factored into project decisions.

"The concept of 'climate proofing' does not exist here," he said.

Thousands killed in last year's monsoon

The Centre for Science and Environment (CSE) found that extreme weather affected India on 331 of 334 monitored days in 2025, or 99% of the period assessed.

More than 4,000 people died, about 3,000 during the monsoon, while at least 30 states and union territories experienced extreme weather simultaneously for eight consecutive months.

Sunita Narain, director general of the CSE, argues that adaptation therefore needs to become part of the country's development strategy.

"Climate change is no longer a future threat. It is already here in the form of extreme heat, extreme rainfall and increasingly destructive weather events," Narain told DW.

"The challenge is no longer proving the science, but redesigning our economy and infrastructure to survive it," she added.

"Cities, roads, drainage systems and water infrastructure can no longer be designed for yesterday's climate."

Every investment, she says, must be planned for a future of more intense and unpredictable weather.

In her reckoning, India must stop treating each flood as an isolated disaster and start planning for a climate in which such extremes are no longer exceptional.

What can be done against extreme weather?

India is facing a whole new pattern of extreme weather. It can record a rainfall deficit nationally while individual regions are underwater. Farmers can go weeks without useful rain and then lose crops in a few hours. Cities can prepare for an average monsoon and still be overwhelmed by one extraordinary downpour.

"The focus now needs to move beyond documenting and discussing these changes towards developing and implementing effective, sector-specific adaptation strategies," climate scientist and former Indian official Rajeevan said.

That means better flood management in cities, changes in agricultural practices, stronger water-storage systems and infrastructure designed around short-duration extreme rainfall rather than historical averages.

India cannot control the monsoon or El Nino and it cannot stop global warming on its own. It can decide, however, where it builds, how it builds and if its new infrastructure is designed for the climate of its future.

Edited by: Darko Janjevic