One of the key points we discovered last time when looking at catcher offense is that each position stands on its own. The big league average for bases per out is .676, but that number is rarely ever the most relevant number. At first glance, it would appear that Christian Walker should be an American League all-star. He is at worst solid defensively and he has added 20 home runs (as of this writing) by the all-star break. However, we might be signing a different tune when we look at the American League numbers.

We are setting up the same rules as we did last time. Qualifying players need at least 120 outs and have had to play some first base. This will obviously include some designated hitters, but DH is not really so much of a position as a sanctioned strategy. So, when we profile Yordan Alvarez later on, he will be profiled as a left fielder. Given those caveats, there are 19 players that qualify for the analysis.

What we are looking for is an analysis of mean and median. It is one thing to say that the average big league hitter has a ,676 BPO. It is another to look at first basemen and see what their average is. Mean is of course what most people know as the numerical average. Median is the number in the middle. When we have smaller data sets we will commonly see some discrepancies between the mean and the median.

Bases per out is calculated by adding total bases, walks, stolen bases, and hit by pitches and dividing it by total outs. The general idea is that it is more inclusive and accurate than OPS. It encompasses everything a player does offensively. How is Christian Walker doing as compared to the typical American League first basemen?

1.000

.996

.988

.936

.880

.846

.794

.763

.758

.728

.696

.682

.673

.672

.641

Vlad Guerrero Jr.

.632

.621

.615

.613

236.1

135.9

41.1

2.7

4.5

.780

.729

I certainly don’t have a degree in mathematics and I don’t teach it during the school year, but it isn’t difficult to see patterns. Generally speaking, the more success you have the more opportunities you get. So, the numbers on top are driving the mean up. This is the most important reason why the median makes more sense as a benchmark. If you look at who is literally in the middle it is Christian Walker.

Again, the components and the end results don’t quite add up because of the differences in opportunity. If you crunch those numbers in the median column you will not get .729. You will actually get .739. Either way, that number seems like a much more reasonable number when looking at the average of the position in the American League. We can also see clearly, that Walker really doesn’t have any business being near the All-Star game with the number of productive players we have here.

What is more interesting is pegging whether Walker is actually worth the 20 million dollars he is being paid. As per usual, that depends on how you phrase the question. In terms of pure value is actually probably pretty close. He was worth 0.3 BWAR last season, but has been worth 1.8 BWAR through the all-star break. That probably prorates to something around 3.0 BWAR. If each win is worth eight million dollars then he would need five WAR to equal that amount. He was worth 1.1 FWAR last year and has 1.6 FWAR this season. If we are to believe Fangraphs then he comes reasonably close overall and certainly earns his money this season. We can also look at his overall numbers as an Astro and compare that with BPO.

Christian Walker 2025-2026

.678

So, again this is a question of perspective. According to these numbers, Walker has been a league average hitter overall in his time in Houston. However, the numbers above would indicate that he is not an average first basemen. The NL may not have the heavyweights that the AL has at first base, so he might end up looking better in the overall scheme of things, but clearly whether he has been worth the expense depends greatly on how you ask the question.

In the last article, we asked what Diaz would need to do differently to help advance the Astros offense. Walker clearly just needs to keep doing what he is doing. If he ends up with between 30 and 35 home runs and close to 100 RBI then that feels like a really good season for him. One of the biggest mistakes that teams and fans make is that they expect that big time dollars somehow make you something you are not. Walker’s 2026 numbers are in line with his career numbers. He has been the guy that he was before he came to Houston in 2026. No one should have expected him to be anything more than that.