In the lab: The trade that wasn’t

One of the commenters on the Daulton Varsho lab asked if I would do a lab on Trevor Larnach. Usually, I don't pay much attention to what hasn't been done, but multiple reports have now indicated that a deal was in place to send Bryan Abreu to the Twins in exchange for Larnach. According to all of those sources, Jim Crane nixed the deal. Before I dive into numbers, we should probably look at the differences between the two deals.

Everyone has opined about the Varsho deal. The primary criticism is that you traded away a pitcher with years of control (can become a free agent following the 2029 season) for a player with no control beyond this season. However, Arrighetti had minimal present value. He was 7-5 with a 4.60 ERA, but virtually all of those wins came in a brilliant first month that saw him win the Pitcher of the Month Award. He was not currently in the Astros rotation and some would argue that he wouldn't likely rejoin it unless there were major injuries. So, this was a classic get something now for someone that could help in the future kind of deal.