The Jacksonville Jaguars won 13 games last year.

If you've been keeping up with previews and predictions for the upcoming season or new NFL power rankings, it would seem like Jacksonville was a middle-of-the-pack team in 2025, not one of the best teams in the NFL.

If you listen to how the national media has received the Jaguars' offseason, it would seem the team was being run by idiots, not by one of the NFL's best coaching staffs and a general manager who is very well regarded.

But, I promise you, the Jaguars won 13 games last year.

Not only did they win 13 games, but they also did so with top wide receiver Brian Thomas Jr. being a shell of the player he was in 2024, when he became the first Jacksonville WR to make the Pro Bowl as a rookie. Star edge rusher Travon Walker was hampered by injuries all season as well, only recording 3.5 sacks after back-to-back campaigns of hitting double digits. Rookie phenom Travis Hunter only played in seven games before a knee injury ended his season.

The Jacksonville Jaguars still won 13 games.

However, many believe that the Jaguars were a one-year wonder, and are predicting a regression in 2026.

Despite winning 13 games in 2025, BetMGM has the Jaguars' win total at only 8.5 for 2026, expecting a 4-5 drop in victories. Not only is the Jaguars' total shockingly low, but the over is also set at +120, making it a slight underdog against the under.

At least Vic Tafur from The Athletic believes the better bet is the over, although he is not confident enough to place it among his "best bets" for the 2026 season.

Tafur Mixes Skepticism And Optimism For Jags

In making his pick for the over, Tafur mixes skepticism and optimism for the Jags this season. He, like everyone else, is not a fan of how Jacksonville handled the offseason, and he also wonders if head coach Liam Coen is "due for some humbling." Tafur does think that Trevor Lawrence and the defensive line will carry the Jaguars to over 8.5 wins.

"I don’t love the Jaguars taking a nap this offseason and not building off last season’s success, and if you said Liam Coen was due for some humbling in Year 2, I wouldn’t argue. And the schedule is brutal. The price for “hosting” back-to-back games in London is a 10-game closing stretch with seven road games, two on a short week. But … 8.5 wins. They won 13 last season, have a mean defensive line and Trevor Lawrence was finally that guy — he had 15 touchdowns and one interception over the final six regular-season games, all wins."

It's crazy to see a team that had so much success a season ago be expected to regress to a .500 team this year. The Jags won nine more games in 2025 than they did in 2024.

If a team coached by Sean McVay or one of the Harbaughs showed that kind of improvement, the national media would declare them Super Bowl champions with the actual season a mere formality.

While it will be difficult for the Jaguars to reach 13 wins again, they almost certainly will be a winning team in 2026. If they don't reach at least nine wins this season, it will be a colossal failure.

Like Tafur says, bet the over.

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