I started tossing out over/unders for the second half back when the Orioles were in the beginning stages of a rebuild. At the time, it felt like a fun exercise for the fans that remained engaged through all the losing. Eventually, Baltimore broke out. The subjects shifted from draft selection to playoff position. The team gave everyone plenty of confidence to make optimistic predictions, and I made callbacks to the dark times when we focused on Hanser Alberto and Rougned Odor.

The team took a significant step back last season. The topics flipped from trade acquisitions to major league players dealt away. I set a conservative number for players with 20 or more home runs and an outlandish total for the number of catchers used in the season.

That brings us to today. The Orioles entered the All-Star break five games under .500 but only two back from the final wild card. Mike Elias proclaimed last month that the team intended to buy at the trade deadline. O’s fans remained skeptical, but the Birds finally rattled off a four-game winning streak at the end of the first half.

You may not think this team is very good, but the American League isn’t exactly full of juggernauts. It’s a difficult time to make predictions in Birdland, but let’s give it a shot!

Over/Under 6.5 players with an OPS+ above 100

The Orioles entered the break with only five players with an OPS+ greater than 100. OPS+ adjusts a players on-base and slugging percentage to account for the ballpark and league that the player plays in. The number is weighted so that a league-average hitter possesses a 100 OPS+. An OPS+ in the triple digits indicates that the player has been an above-average hitter, while double digits indicates the opposite.

Baltimore’s offense was considered to be among the best in baseball heading into the season, but the team only has five everyday players with an OPS+ north of 100. Pete Alonso (129), Blaze Alexander (127), Samuel Basallo (115), Adley Rutschman (114), and Taylor Ward (113) have done their part, but Gunnar Henderson (95) and Jackson Holliday (98) have been disappointments.

It’s relatively easy to imagine Henderson and Holliday picking up a few more points, but could anyone else? Colton Cowser (83) is harmed by his brutal start to the season. Dylan Beavers (89) could maybe get there with a strong second half, but Leody Taveras (91) feels like he’s already maxed out. Jeremiah Jackson (87) is capable of getting hot, but Coby Mayo (83) would need to only face lefties for the remainder of the season.

Over/Under MLB players traded away 1.5

Over/Under MLB players acquired 1.5

I lumped these two together to let people take a crack at the whole buyers/sellers thing. Trevor Rogers and Taylor Ward will both be free agents at the end of the season and could help a team win games in the postseason. Yennier Cano is off to a great start, and Andrew Kittredge has the experience to help a contender down the stretch.

At the same time, the playoffs remain in reach for a motivated front office. The team has a glaring hole at third base with Blaze Alexander on the IL, and the bullpen needs multiple additions to be taken seriously.

There’s also a chance that the Orioles stand pat at see where the season goes. The organization could receive draft pick compensation if the Rogers and Ward leave in free agency after receiving a qualifying offer, but that’s up in the air with labor negotiations already underway.

Over/Under 4.5 combined saves for Ryan Helsley and Félix Bautista in the second half

Ryan Helsley is expected to avoid surgery despite some inflammation around his UCL. The Orioles signed Helsley to a two-year, $28 million dollar deal to be the their closer, but the former Cardinal has been sidelined multiple times with injuries. There’s no public timetable, but Helsley could return at some point in the second half. The 31-year old has eight saves this season.

The Orioles shared two weeks ago that Félix Bautista was throwing after undergoing surgery on his right labrum and rotator cuff last year. The team said The Mountain was throwing “really, really well” and believes Bautista could return by the end of the season. Whether the Orioles will be motivated to send out the flame-thrower could depend on their place in the standings.

Over/Under 11.5 home runs by Taylor Ward

In case anyone is feeling shy about sharing their picks, I’ll shed some light on my worst pick of the season. When asked for a wild prediction back in March, I said that Taylor Ward would hit more home runs than Pete Alonso this season. Baltimore acquired Ward after he tallied 36 homers for the Angels in 2025. I thought Ward would bring his power to Baltimore, and that Alonso could struggle early in the first year of his new contract. Alonso reached the All-Star break with a team-high 21 home runs. Ward hit six in 439 plate appearances.

Ward has reinvented himself with a team-high 75 walks, but the power is still in there somewhere. The free-agent-to-be should find the seats a little more often, but can he double his total over the final 65 games?

Over/Under 3.5th place in the AL Wild Card

This is an awkward way of asking if you think the Orioles will make the playoffs. The juice would definitely be on the under in this scenario. Fans had mostly given up hope last week, but the team picked up some momentum by winning four straight for the first time this season.

Baltimore will need a few more winning streaks to sneak into the playoffs, but they shouldn’t need to climb much higher than .500 for the season. Some team is going to take the third wild card slot. Why not the Orioles?

Rapid Fire

Yennier Cano currently holds a 2.58 FIP. That number is south of his 2.84 FIP from his All-Star rookie season. The Orioles desperately need the reliever to keep it going. Will he?

Tyler O’Neill (.195) and Coby Mayo (.193) both entered the All-Star break hitting below the “Mendoza Line.” Jackson Holliday is a lot closer than we’d like to admit at .210.

This isn’t first time that we’ve wondered how many big league games Heston Kjerstad would play in a season. Kjerstad and Enrique Bradfield Jr. are both healthy and playing at Triple-A Norfolk.

Alonso played 162 in 2024 and 2025. He did not miss a game in the first half.

Wins don’t move the needle like they used to, but Brandon Young is 7-2 this season. Does he get to 12 wins?

Thanks for following along. Share your picks in the comments below!