Categories
Short on US Patriot missiles, Ukraine looks for alternatives
Short on US Patriot missiles, Ukraine looks for alternatives
Andreas Noll08/12/2026August 12, 2026Russia is putting pressure on Ukraine with ballistic missiles, but Kyiv is short of Patriot interceptors. Domestic production and European alternatives take time. Can Kyiv realistically reduce its dependence on the US?
https://p.dw.com/p/5IetURussia is increasingly relying on ballistic missiles for its attacks on Ukraine — precisely the weapons that Ukraine's armed forces depend heavily on Western support to ward off.
However, the crucial US-produced Patriot interceptor missiles are often in short supply.
How urgently does Ukraine need new Patriot missiles?
Extremely urgently. While Ukraine has set up a well-functioning defense network against drones, its armed forces are reaching their limits when it comes to fending off Iskander-M ballistic missiles. One of the few weapons capable of countering such missiles is, above all, the Patriot system with its PAC-3 interceptor missiles.
At the beginning of August, it became evident once again how patchy Ukraine's air defense has become. During a Russian attack on August 1, Ukraine could only intercept one of 27 ballistic missiles fired. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said this was due to the fact that there were practically no more Patriot interceptor missiles left for the eight batteries stationed across Ukraine.
Three days later, according to Ukraine, Russia fired another 24 ballistic missiles as well as four Zircon hypersonic missiles, of which none were intercepted.
Ukraine faces Patriot missile shortage
To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video
The French/Italian SAMP/T is considered an alternative to the Patriot system. However, Ukraine owns only a few of those, and the required Aster-30 interceptor missiles are also in short supply. In addition, the more powerful new-generation SAMP/T NG will only gradually become available. Therefore, the system is not a European short-term alternative to Patriot.
At the same time, Patriot deliveries are declining. According to Zelenskyy, Ukraine received only about one-third as many anti-aircraft missiles so far this year as it did in 2025. The war in the Middle East has further exacerbated the global shortage. Unlike at the beginning of the Ukraine war, the problem today lies less with launching facilities and more with Patriot ammunition.
What are the dimensions of Russia's missile capabilities?
Although exact Russian figures are not publicly available, there are numerous indications that Russia is ramping up its production. Moscow has, for example, significantly increased production of Iskander-M and Kinzhal ballistic and air-launched missiles. According to current estimates, it produces around 60 to 65 Iskander-M missiles per month alone, which amounts to more than 700 per year.
Reports indicate there are apparently shipments from North Korea as well. According to Ukraine, Pyongyang has supplied Russia with some 150 ballistic missiles since the end of 2023. In addition, a North Korean missile unit that has recently been deployed to Russia could be equipped with up to 120 additional missiles.
Ukraine calls on allies to help with air defenses
According to Ukraine's Defense Ministry, Russia launched 195 ballistic missiles of various types in July alone. Only 29 of them could be intercepted. Ukraine's military intelligence service estimates that Russia is currently capable of firing up to 100 ballistic missiles per month without depleting its stocks.
In contrast, US missile producer Lockheed Martin supplied only 620 modern PAC-3 MSE interceptor missiles worldwide in 2025. The company plans to increase its annual production capacity to 2,000 units, but only as part of a seven-year program.
Did the US allow Ukraine to build its own Patriots?
According to defense intelligence platform Army Recognition, an average of only some 133 Patriot interceptor missiles have been delivered to Ukraine per year since the start of the war. Given the intensity of Russian missile attacks this isn't much, which is why another option is gaining importance in Kyiv: domestic production.
In the wake of the NATO summit in Ankara in July, the Ukrainian government presented the matter as largely settled. Zelenskyy cited a political decision by US President Donald Trump to grant Ukraine licenses for the production of Patriot interceptor missiles. As recently as July 28, it was declared after a meeting of the two leaders in Washington that both presidents had had talks about the "implementation" of this decision.
Three days later, Trump caused confusion. The US had not yet approved Ukrainian production; it had to be "careful," Trump said, with this kind of technology transfer.
Nonetheless, the talks are continuing. According to information from Reuters news agency, American and Ukrainian representatives are considering, among other options, a model in which components are produced in Ukraine and missiles are initially assembled in Germany. Kyiv's participation in the production of a new, less expensive Patriot missile is also under discussion.
How quickly could Ukraine build Patriot missiles on its own?
Not fast enough to solve the current problem of overburdening. Outgoing Ukrainian ambassador in Washington, Olha Stefanishyna, estimated that setting up production of Patriot missiles in Ukraine was a process that could take anywhere from 12 months to five years.
A modern interceptor missile has numerous highly specialized components. A shortage of seeker heads, electronics or missile motors, for example, can limit the entire production. Until a domestic production is established, Kyiv is trying to obtain Patriot missiles more quickly. To this end, other customers are to pass on their shipments to Ukraine and get replacements at a later date.
What's the status of Ukraine's own developments?
Ukraine is no longer working alone on a system of its own, but is trying to set up a European-Ukrainian missile defense project instead. The program is known as Freya.
The core of the system will be the FP7.X interceptor missile provided by Ukrainian manufacturer Fire Point. According to the company's CTO, Iryna Terekh, its architecture is based on Soviet designs for the S-300 and S-400 air defense systems. Today's missile, however, had only some 20% in common with its predecessors, Terekh said.
Now involved in the project are, according to Fire Point, more than a dozen European arms manufacturers. Their goal is to develop an interceptor missile costing less than €1 million ($1.15 million), which would make it less expensive than the modern Patriot PAC-3 missiles ($5 million).
However, this system will not be quickly available either. The Ukrainian side aims to have a prototype ready during the first half of 2027.
This article was originally written in German.
Advertisement