As the Orioles head into the second half of the season and toward the August 3rd trade deadline, they have decisions to make on two prime trade candidates. Given the O’s perpetual need for starting pitching, LHP Trevor Rogers seems like an ideal extension candidate and should not be traded. Outfielder Taylor Ward represents a much tougher decision.

The Orioles shipped out always-injured starter Grayson Rodriguez for the 32-year-old Ward in the offseason, knowing that the longtime former Angel was heading into the last year of his contract. The move was the first of two moves the Orioles’ front office made to take a serious swing at upgrading Baltimore’s right-handed power. With Ward and 1B Pete Alonso, the O’s thought they were adding 60-70 HRs and 200+ RBIs to a talented (but often inconsistent) lineup.

And while Alonso has certainly lived up to his billing, Ward’s performance has been a bit more head-scratching. On one hand, he’s second on the team (behind Alonso) with a 2.0 bWAR, tied with the Polar Bear with 91 hits and is on pace to shatter the Orioles’ single-season walk record. Ward has certainly been a good player for the Orioles and well worth the price of a pitcher who may never make 25+ starts in a season.

And yet, Ward also hasn’t been as advertised in terms of power output and run production. Last year  Ward’s .475 slugging percentage ranked 45th in all of baseball. Among outfielders with at least 400 PA, he was 16th in slugging, narrowly beating out All-Stars like Julio Rodriguez and James Wood. So far this year, he’s down to 163rd among all major leaguers. Among outfielders with at least 250 PAs, Ward’s .359 slugging percentage ranks 61st and is more in line with struggling stars like Jarren Duran and Jackson Merrill.

The 32-year-old’s massive dip in power not only represents a 100+-point drop from last year’s slugging output, but it also represents a 70-point drop from his career slugging percentage of .429. Ward only just hit his first home run at Camden Yards this past weekend against the Royals, and is on pace for 10 home runs after hitting 36 last season. And while moving from the three hole with the Angels to the leadoff spot for the O’s also hurts his RBI opportunities, the lack of power is also a cause for his current 42-RBI pace.

If the Orioles wanted to do an extension with Ward, it’d likely cost them around $15-20M—similar to what they’re currently paying Tyler O’Neill. Given that his current salary is just over $12M, the cost of an extension is likely negligible if you account for Ryan Mountcastle’s $6.8M salary coming off the books in 2027. However, Ward is also likely the second-best outfielder (behind Randy Arozarena) in the upcoming free agent class. That may mean his salary gets inflated if a bidding war breaks out.

Ward also could be very desirable to a number of sure-fire playoff teams this season. The Phillies are the most heavily linked team with Ward, as they’ve struggled to get production from their outfielders (27th in OF Wins Above Average) and to hit left-handed pitchers (26th in OPS vs. lefties). The Diamondbacks, Guardians and Rays could also use corner outfield help, with the latter two also needing help vs. lefties.

The O’s may be hesitant to deal Ward to a fellow AL team, especially if they can maintain their recent form. The four-game win streak before the All-Star break has the O’s only two games out of a Wild Card, and relative weakness of the American League means they should be in the mix into August or September.

However, there will clearly be a market for Ward if the O’s choose to deal their outfield rental instead of offering an extension. Similar deals last year for Harrison Bader, Jesus Sanchez and Cedric Mullins netted each selling team 2-3 prospects. Given Ward’s potential impact, the O’s should expect 2-3 prospects of decent quality.

The Orioles have the unenviable task of trying to balance the effects of a disappointing start to the season, the desire to push for a playoff berth and the long-term health of the franchise. The O’s were in a similar position two seasons ago with the pending free agency of Anthony Santander. At that time, Baltimore was practically a lock to make the playoffs, making the decision to keep the 29-year-old pending free agent defensible.

The Elias-led front office can’t repeat that same strategy with Ward. Despite recent positive momentum, it’s far from a guarantee that the O’s overcome the four teams in front of them vying for the final AL Wild Card spot. Baltimore has the hardest remaining strength of schedule in the American League and is dealing with the recent injury to Blaze Alexander. Trading Ward would be a gut punch in that it’d be admitting the Orioles don’t see themselves as true contenders.

However, keeping Ward on the roster only to let him walk at season’s end would be a mistake. The Orioles’ offseasons often feel reactionary in nature. The front office often seems like it is scrambling to replace a departing player after missing out on their ideal candidate. Too often, it seems that Baltimore is chasing the shadow cast by its past success instead of fortifying the foundation for a better chance at future prosperity.

If the front office lets Ward walk for nothing, the Orioles will enter the offseason with corner outfield as one of their biggest needs—and less prospect ammunition for a trade. And while Ward may not be the perfect fit for a long-term deal, the Santander for Tyler O’Neill swap shows that replacing good players on the free agent market is a potentially greater risk. What Elias & Co. decide to do with Ward should be the toughest decision the Orioles face in the next three weeks.