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Tanker Attacks Risk Overplaying Iran’s Hand, Analysts say
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SKIP ADVERTISEMENTYou have a preview view of this article while we are checking your access. When we have confirmed access, the full article content will load.Tanker Attacks Risk Overplaying Iran’s Hand and Reigniting a War
Iran’s history shows it is willing to dig in, even when it may suffer big losses.
Listen · 6:32 minIran, fearing that its hold over the crucial Strait of Hormuz shipping lanes was gradually slipping away, risked overplaying its hand by again firing on oil tankers and potentially rekindling a major war with the United States, analysts said.
Both sides threatened on Wednesday to scuttle the Memorandum of Understanding that they had signed on June 17 to establish a blueprint for peace talks and extended a wobbly cease-fire in place since April. American warplanes carried out even more intensive attacks on scores of targets across Iran overnight, while Iran vowed to ratchet up drone and missile strikes against U.S. allies in the Persian Gulf.
The basic bargain in the vaguely worded, 14-point Memorandum of Understanding was that Iran would reopen the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping in exchange for badly needed economic relief. Thornier issues, including the fate of Iran’s nuclear program, were kicked down the road for further negotiations. But very little changed.
“The M.O.U. increasingly looked like a mirage,” said Vali Nasr, a veteran Iran analyst and a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. “The view from Tehran is that the U.S. is engaged in a concerted effort to take control of the Strait out of Iran’s hands, to weaken its position in Lebanon and to regain its own strength in order to put even more pressure on Iran or to go back to war.”
As the 60-day clock on the agreement ticked away, Iran grew increasingly frustrated that the U.S. Navy was encouraging maritime traffic to take a southern route along the coast of Oman rather than respecting Iranian demands that all traffic register with its newly minted Hormuz transit authority, a precursor to charging fees. Traffic last weekend was about one-third of the prewar level of more than 100 ships daily, split evenly between the Iranian and Omani sides of the waterway, according to Kpler, which tracks marine traffic.
In addition, the United States was working to conclude a separate peace between Lebanon and Israel that would include the long-elusive goal of disarming Hezbollah, Iran’s main proxy force in Lebanon. Finally, in public discussions about financial aid, the scale kept shrinking.
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