The first lesson is straightforward: Projecting the top guys on the roster really isn’t such a hard thing to do. Barring injuries, suspensions, trades, retirements and other things of that nature, a preseason roster projection should have the eventual starters on the roster.

The uncertainty isn’t at the top of the roster. It’s at the margins. And that’s where these projections get interesting – the players the projections collectively missed on.

Below is a summary chart over the last three years of players that made the season-opening 53-man roster but didn’t show up in any of the projections (or only on one).

body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table { border: 1px solid #000 !important; border-collapse: collapse !important; } body .sbnu-legacy-content-table td, body .sbnu-legacy-content-table th { padding: 0px 6px !important; }

Unpredictable Transaction

Injuries / PUP / suspensions

Unexpected camp winners

T.J. Bass (Rookie)

The chart highlights (in blue and red) that some of the moves the team makes after the start of training camp are simply unpredictable. Trades, players signings, and activations off of various injury and non-injury lists will naturally pull down the “hit rate” on any projection.

And then there’s the part marked in yellow where some down-roster guys make the team against all (public) expectations.

The table only shows players added to the team; it doesn’t include players that didn’t make the initial 53 because they were suspended, put on PUP/IR, retired, or were traded away. Projecting these roster moves before camp is impossible, and they will naturally make any projection look weak in hindsight.

But there’s more to watch out for than just these player transactions. As we’ve tracked these early projections over the last few years, a handful of roster projection pitfalls have emerged which can be broadly classified in the following four categories:

“Progress stopper” is a term Bill Parcells introduced to Cowboys Nation. The term is mostly used for veteran players with little upside who fans and media alike are convinced should leave to make room for an exciting young talent. But coaches don’t always think in terms of potential. Instead, they see reliability versus lack of experience, and will often take the former over the latter. It’s not sexy and it’s not what fans and the media are clamoring for, but it’s what coaches do.

As you look at roster projections, look closely at where there’s a tradeoff between a middle-of-the-pack veteran and a young (and unproven) player. The veteran may have the edge more often than you think.

Everybody has a pet cat. And whether we do it knowingly or not, we all construct our projections to some way, some how fit in that one player we’ve taken a linking to. Similarly, we often try to construct a roster in the hopes of getting rid of that one player we don’t like for some reason.

In 2023, none of the projections had a fullback making the roster. Turns out, the Cowboys thought a fullback would be an essential element in their ground game.

Who’s going to be this year’s system guy, a nickelback, a red-zone specialist, a receiver who can stretch the field vertically? The coaches probably already have a pretty good idea, we don’t.

The You-Can-Never-Have-Enough-Players-At-His-Position Guy

Last year, some projections had the Cowboys going ‘long’ with five safeties or 10 offensive linemen. The Cowboys ended up going short at both positions, keeping only four safeties and nine linemen.

Building the roster is not a color-by-numbers exercise. Fans often think in positional quotas. Coaches think in roles.

The lesson here isn’t that preseason roster projections are bad. Quite the opposite. Identifying 44 of the eventual 53 players before training camp even begins is actually remarkably impressive.

The mistake is assuming the remaining nine roster spots are simply waiting to be filled by the next nine names on the depth chart. History suggests they rarely are. And the approach to filling those spots changes every year.

Here’s how the remaining roster spots (versus the projections) were filled the last three years:

Some will be veterans coaches trust more than fans do. Some will be players whose value only becomes apparent once the coaching staff starts installing its schemes. Some won’t even be on the roster when training camp opens.

That’s what makes July roster projections so much fun. They’re less a prediction of the final 53 than a snapshot of where the roster stands before reality inevitably gets in the way.

So when the next projection leaves off your favorite rookie, or keeps a veteran you’ve already given up on, don’t panic. If recent Cowboys history tells us anything, it’s that the final roster is still being written.

Jalen Brooks (7th, rookie)