Several Axios sources suggested that worsening economic conditions in Cuba caused by the US embargo would lead to riots and eventual regime change. “It’s going to be hot,” one source told Axios. “People won’t have electricity. Food spoils without refrigeration. People get angry. They can take to the streets.” 

Another official noted that even if Trump wanted to launch an invasion, he would prefer it to be over in less than 48 hours. Otherwise, “it’s a quagmire in the making. This could get messy,” he explained.

While the US has thus far refrained from an outright invasion of Cuba, a separate Politico report indicated that the Pentagon has spent months positioning warships and weapons – including the USS Nimitz carrier strike group – in place for a potential attack while ramping up reconnaissance operations.

Cuban Foreign Minister Bruno Rodriguez Parrilla warned this week that any military attack would trigger a “bloodbath” and the death of thousands of Cubans and Americans alike.

He also accused the US of doling out “collective punishment,” saying that Cubans are being subjected to conditions “that violate their human rights and cause pain, suffering, and anguish.”

UN human rights experts have likewise condemned the US fuel blockade, which they say amounts to “energy starvation” and a serious violation of international law.

Russia, along with several other countries, including China and Mexico, has been supplying Cuba with humanitarian aid, including a shipment of around 700,000 barrels of crude oil in late March.

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