Why Did the Palestinians Lose — Part 3

By Hicham Bou Nassif |Weinberg Associate Professor of International Relations and the Middle East and George R. Roberts Fellow at Claremont McKenna College-California What now for the Palestinian cause? In reality, four factors have been working against it for years: First, the expansion of settlements in the West Bank is eroding the geographic foundation of the two-state solution. Around half a million Israeli settlers live in the West Bank, not including settlers in East Jerusalem. Settlers are generally younger, and their numbers are growing at higher rates than other segments of Israeli society, particularly among the religious segments. This means the coming years are likely to see further settlement expansion in the West Bank to accommodate the growing number of Israelis living there. Second, Israel’s peace camp, once driven by forces such as the Labor Party and the left-wing Meretz party, has collapsed. It is true that Yair Golan brought the two parties together electorally in 2024, but together they represent no more than 10 percent of voters. While opinion polls have for years shown that a majority of Israelis have moved away from the two-state solution, it goes without saying that the events of 7 October and what followed have further marginalized Israel’s doves and strengthened its hawks. The fact that a majority of Palestinians continue to support, according to polls recently published by Princeton University professor Amaney Jamal, a two-state solution and peaceful coexistence with Israel does little to change the picture. Most of Israeli society is simply not interested at present. Third, Iran’s expansionist ambitions in the region have brought various Arab countries closer to Israel on the basis of shared interests in confronting Tehran. The Emiratis may be the clearest example in this regard, but they are not alone. Naturally, Arab states have the right — and indeed the obligation — to put their own interests above any other consideration, as any state anywhere in the world does. The Palestinians’ hopes that their cause would remain central to everyone indefinitely were never realistic. What remains is that the rise of the Iranian axis in the region and the Arab reaction against it have set in motion a series of regional shifts that have not worked in the Palestinians’ favor. Fourth, the division among Palestinians between the West Bank and Gaza, and between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, has not helped them either. At least for now, it is unclear whether they are moving toward healing the rift, despite the devastation that has befallen Gaza. This picture is not bright for the Palestinians, of course. But it is not entirely bleak either. Public opinion around the world, across broad segments of society, tends to sympathize with the Palestinians, including in Europe. More importantly, dissatisfaction with the policies of the Israeli right has reached notable levels in the United States, not only among Democrats but even within the Republican Party, particularly among younger generations. If this shift in public opinion continues, it may be the most important card the Palestinian cause still has amid the mounting losses and successive tragedies. This article was originally published in Arabic by Nida al-Watan on 10 October 2026. The original can be found here. The views expressed in this op-ed are solely those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of SyriacPress.